Investors’ ESG (environmental, social and governance) concerns were hampering the industry before Biden arrived but have been turbocharged by his administration’s policies aimed at keeping new oil and gas production in the ground. The Biden administration could improve the investment climate around shale by ceasing its attacks on the oil industry. That’s a significant additional oil, but shale producers could do much more.

output to remain near 11.3 million through the end of 2021 before increasing to an average of 11.7 million barrels a day in 2022. The Energy Information Administration expects U.S.

oil production remains nearly 2 million barrels a day below its peak of 13.1 million barrels a day. However, the Biden administration and Wall Street concerns about the low-carbon energy transition have put shackles on shale. This dropped to $57 a barrel in the subsequent five years through 2019 largely because of the boom in America’s shale oil patch, which added vast amounts of non-OPEC supply that tempered prices. Prices will go to the moon.īetween 20, consumers tolerated an average price of $107 a barrel. It’s not hard to see where this is heading if we leave it up to OPEC+ to satisfy rising demand. It should be emphasized that Brent has already risen to around $80 even though global oil demand remains roughly 4 million barrels a day less than its pre-pandemic levels. That’s an increase from their previous forecast of $80, which Brent was already closing in on as of Monday, Oct. OPEC+ holds about 6 million barrels a day of spare production capacity - excluding Iran - but if it chooses not to add more barrels, prices have nowhere to go but up.Įconomic analysts Goldman Sachs GS, one of the most influential financial players in oil markets, expects international benchmark Brent prices to hit $90 a barrel by the end of the year. All of this will increase oil demand - and prices - in the coming quarters unless there is a commensurate supply response.

Caught flat footed